Introduction Macroeconomic Insights Global Political Landscape Ghana’s Fiscal Position Technology & Cybersecurity Banking Industry The Arctic contest has indirect but material implications on Ghana. Greater Arctic shipping capacity could gradually alter global trade routes, with potential effects on freight costs, shipping times, and the relative importance of traditional maritime corridors. Increased geopolitical tension among major powers also raises the risk of energy price volatility, which would affect Ghana through fuel import costs, inflation dynamics, and fiscal balances.
experienced large-scale militant attacks, security assessments indicate heightened vulnerabilities along its northern borders, including increased cross-border movements, logistical pressures, and security-related strains associated with instability in the Sahel.Border-area incidents, persistent ethnic tensions such as those in Bawku, and refugee inflows estimated at over 110,000 across coastal states are dampening investor confidence. These pressures has the propensity to raise insurance and transport costs along trade corridors, weaken investment appetite in mining and logistics, and elevate credit risks in affected regions.
Without effective containment, security spillovers could undermine Ghana’s projected growth of over 4 percent in 2026 and exacerbate already elevated post-DDEP non- performing loans, placing renewed strain on bank liquidity. toward resilience-focused and ESG-aligned financing as Ghana approaches a potential exit from the IMF programme. Implications for Ghana’s Banking Industry Taken together, these geopolitical forces point to a more volatile and risk-sensitive global environment in 2026. Ghana’s banking sector, while liquid and broadly solvent, remains constrained by elevated non-performing loans following the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme.
Strengthening resilience will require proactive anticipation of commodity and foreign exchange shocks, robust liquidity management, and close monitoring of trade- and energy-exposed portfolios. Encouragingly, macroeconomic stabilisation, easing inflation, and ongoing fiscal consolidation are expected to support a gradual recovery, with GDP growth projected at about 4.8 percent in 2026 by IMF and Fitch estimates. Additional Relevant Geopolitical Situations Impacting Ghana’s Banking Sector • Russia–Ukraine War: Now in its fourth year with no clear resolution, the Russia–Ukraine conflict continues to sustain elevated global food and energy prices.
Together, the two countries account for roughly 30 percent of global wheat supply, and ongoing disruptions have contributed to Ghana’s persistent food inflation, estimated at about 9 to 10 percent in late 2025. Energy costs have also remained pressured by dislocations along key trade routes. For banks, these dynamics translate into sustained foreign exchange pressures, cedi volatility, and elevated non-performing loans, particularly in agriculture and agribusiness, with cocoa revenues highly sensitive to global price swings. Credit recovery remains subdued amid weak purchasing power and cautious investment sentiment. • United States Policies under Trump 2.0:
Tariffs and Trade Fragmentation A renewed protectionist tilt in US trade policy, including reciprocal tariffs in the range of 10 to 15 percent on select partners and uncertainty surrounding the future of AGOA preferences, is intensifying global trade fragmentation. While energy exports are largely exempt, Ghana faces higher costs for non-energy exports such as cocoa derivatives and apparel, alongside indirect inflationary pressures from more expensive Chinese inputs.
Although supply- chain diversification presents opportunities, banks will need to navigate volatile capital flows, foreign exchange pressures, and shifting trade finance patterns, while repositioning portfolios Banks that adapt swiftly can unlock opportunities in trade finance restructuring, supply-chain diversification funding, energy resilience investments, and ESG- oriented lending, provided risks are carefully priced and governed.
In an increasingly uncertain global landscape, sustained vigilance, stronger risk management frameworks, deeper engagement with the Bank of Ghana and regional bodies, and balance-sheet strategies aligned with shifting geopolitical realities will be decisive for sector performance. • Sahel Jihadist Spillover: Rising insecurity in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger continues to pose spillover risks for coastal West African states. While Ghana has not Ghana Association of Banks Ghana Association of Banks 2026 Industry Outlook 2026 Industry Outlook 23