Banking Industry Commodity Market Outlook and Terms of Trade Introduction Macroeconomic Insights Global Political Landscape Ghana’s Fiscal Position Technology & Cybersecurity C Figure 12: Gold and Cocoa Prices ommodity prices play a central role in Ghana’s macroeconomic and financial dynamics, and the dataset clearly illustrates their influence. Gold prices averaged approximately 1,722 dollars per ounce between 2010 and 2025, but this average masks a dramatic upswing in recent years. Gold prices reached a trough of about 1,069 dollars per ounce in 2015 and rose steadily thereafter, peaking at approximately 4,054 dollars per ounce in 2025.
This peak coincided with the strongest current account surplus in the dataset and a significant accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Cocoa prices exhibit even greater volatility. Cocoa prices averaged about 3,393 dollars per tonne over the period but declined to a trough of approximately 1,905 dollars per tonne in 2017. Prices then surged sharply, reaching an unprecedented peak of about 10,869 dollars per tonne in 2024 before easing to around 6,111 dollars per tonne in 2025. This spike reflects supply constraints rather than volume expansion, which limits the pass through of high prices into broad based income growth.
For banks, cocoa price volatility translates into uneven cash flows across the agricultural value chain and elevated credit risk for cocoa linked borrowers. Source: Bank of Ghana Online Database Portal Oil prices provide a counterbalancing effect. Brent crude averaged approximately 74 dollars per barrel across the dataset, peaked at 110.6 dollars per barrel in 2013, and fell to a trough of 38.9 dollars per barrel in 2015. Prices remained in the 70 to 80 dollar range during most of the recent stabilisation period before declining to 64.0 dollars per barrel in 2025. Lower oil prices reduce Ghana’s import bill and ease inflationary pressures, which indirectly support banking sector stability.
Figure 13: Brent Crude Prices Source: Bank of Ghana Online Database Portal Ghana Association of Banks 2026 Industry Outlook 12