Banking Industry Macroeconomic Insights Introduction Macroeconomic Insights Global Political Landscape Ghana’s Fiscal Position Technology & Cybersecurity GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC INSIGHTS Global Growth effectiveness of these adjustments will hinge critically on credibility, predictability, and coordination, particularly in managing debt sustainability and financial stability risks. 1.4 percent in 2025 to an estimated 1.3 percent in 2026 and 1.4 percent in 2027. The United States continues to outperform peers, but growth moderates over the projection horizon. In contrast, emerging market and developing economies still anchor global expansion, though at a slower pace.
Growth is projected to ease from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 4.2 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027, as external demand softens and financing conditions remain tight. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to strengthen from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in 2026 and 2027, supported by improving macro conditions, easing inflation, and firmer investment. Even so, growth remains below what is needed for short-term economic transformation, absorb demographic pressures, and reduce poverty at scale. G lobal growth prospects have moderated as the world economy transitions from post-pandemic adjustments to a more structurally uncertain global policy environment.
As of the latest IMF World Economic Outlook in January 2026, global growth is estimated at 3.3 percent for 2025, and it’s expected to remain unchanged in 2026, before a projected slight easing of 3.2 percent in 2027. This relatively stable near-term outlook reflects offsetting forces, including easing inflationary pressures, gradual financial condition normalization, and selective fiscal support, against persistent headwinds from geopolitical tensions, fragmented trade dynamics, and policy uncertainty. While global inflation continues to decline, disinflation remains uneven, with inflation in some advanced economies, reflecting divergent monetary policy paths across regions.
Global GDP growth points to a broadly stable but moderating trajectory between 2025 and 2027, with clear regional divergence. Advanced economies continue to underperform, with growth estimated at 1.7 percent in 2025, with an anticipated marginal improvement of 1.8 percent in 2026, before easing back to 1.7 percent in 2027, reflecting structural constraints, aging demographics, and limited policy space which keep momentum subdued. Within this group, the euro area records weak but gradual stabilization, rising from Figure 1: Real GDP Growth Outlook By late 2025, the IMF’s assessment highlights a cautiously balanced but fragile global outlook.
Risks remain tilted to the downside, driven largely by heightened trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and the recalibration of fiscal and monetary frameworks across major economies. Confidence effects remain weak; and while policy normalization is underway in several jurisdictions, the Source: World Economic Outlook Data (2026) Ghana Association of Banks Ghana Association of Banks 2026 Industry Outlook 2026 Industry Outlook 05