Downloaded from https://www.everyspec.com AMCP 706-198 Example No. 2 Fifty emergency flares were firedI with 46 aueoesses and 4 failures. Estimate the failure probability. Find some a--confidence linaib. Prooqdure xml 1. State the experimental 1. N =50, ki 4, k2 46. data. 2.Estimate 1 from Eq. 2. 4/50 8. 0%. 3. Find s-confidence limits 3. Since N 2- 10 and 1, see par. 2-3. 2. by use of Poisson apprux- Imation. 4. From Example No. 3 in 4. PIL- =1. 37/50 =2. 7%; PI,L. = 1. 97/5A 3.9% par. 2-3. 2, calculate the Pi .7/0. 55 Pu 9.1, =.lmtfop. 5. Make the corresponding b. Ctaf {2. 7% 5 pi t.. .83%1 2: 90% a-confidence statements.
cn{.%~IS55}9% One conclusion from Lhis experiment and analysts ts that it io difficult to find out much about probabilistic parameters by onnducting small experiments.