The Ghana Association of Banks is the country’s leading mouthpiece for the universal banking sector, currently representing the interests of 23 member banks and the Development Bank. The Association was established on 29th May 1980. GAB supports and promotes policies and initiatives that balance both the interest of banks, and the wider public. In consonance with similar global bodies, GAB’s work is underpinned by three core priorities:

Helping customers - both households and businesses; Promoting growth, including supporting Ghana as the financial gateway to West Africa; carrying out research, analysis and dissemination of information on issues affecting the banking industry’s performance and growth.

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The GAB 2026 Banking Industry Outlook examines the banking sector’s shift from macroeconomic stabilisation towards a phase defined by discipline, resilience, and strategic choice. It assesses how banks are repositioning balance sheets, managing risk, and allocating capital in an environment shaped by the final phase of the IMF-supported programme, the normalisation of prudential standards, and evolving global financial conditions.

The GAB 2026 Industry Outlook From Stabilisation to Sustainability The Outlook draws on a detailed assessment of macroeconomic trends, sector performance indicators, and policy settings to evaluate how external shocks, domestic fiscal discipline, and structural reforms are likely to shape banking outcomes. Rather than offering forecasts or prescriptions, it maps plausible operating conditions under varying assumptions about growth, inflation, capital flows, and policy credibility. Given ongoing uncertainty in global markets and domestic adjustment dynamics, outcomes are unlikely to follow a single path. The scenarios and analyses presented are not exhaustive.

They are intended to frame the range of conditions under which banks will operate, highlight key risk transmission channels, and inform strategic decision-making as the sector moves beyond stabilisation and seeks to entrench sustainable performance in 2026 and the years ahead. The GAB 2026 Industry Outlook serves as a lens through which stakeholders can examine risks and opportunities in Ghana’s banking sector. It is also a contribution to the broader discourse on the nation’s financial future. While this Outlook offers valuable perspectives, it should be viewed alongside other strategic insights and data as stakeholders chart their paths in the evolving economic landscape.

January, 22nd 2026 January, 22nd 2026

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Introduction Perspectives on the digital space, emerging technologies, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and market dynamics. 24 - CEO’ s Foreword 01 - Executive Summary 03 CONTENTs Macroeconomic Insights - Global Macroeconomic Outlook 05 - Ghana Macroeconomic Outlook 08 - Monetary Policy and Interest Rates 10 Commodity Market Outlook and Terms of Trade Banking Industry Outlook for 2026 -Performance of Ghana’s Banking Sector (2010-2025) 29 - Gold Price Performance 12 -Development and Performance of the GSE: with Focus on Financial Stocks. 31 - Cocoa Price Performance 12 - Crude Oild & Gas Price Performance 13 -Evolution of Mobile Money in Ghana:

33 Ghana’s Fiscal Position and Debt Dynamics Key Developments in Ghana’s Financial Landscape - Ghana’s Fiscal Outlook from 2026 and Beyond 16 - Digital and Virtual Assets, Blockchain Technology, and Financial Digilisation 36 - IMF Programme Assessment and Post - Non-Interest Banking 40 - ESG and Sustainability in Financial Intermediation 40 IMF Outlook 19 Global Political Landscape Global Financial Stability and Banks; 2026 Outlook Compendium 41 Geopolitical Fragmentation, Trade Disruptions and Financial Spillovers 20

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Introduction Macroeconomic Insights Global Political Landscape Ghana’s Fiscal Position Technology & Cybersecurity Banking Industry CEO’S FOREWORD T he year 2026 marks an important transition for Ghana’s economy and its banking industry. After a prolonged period of macroeconomic stress, debt restructuring, and policy adjustment, the economy is about to enter a post-IMF phase defined less by emergency stabilisation and more by the challenge of sustaining credibility, discipline, and inclusive growth. economic history reminds us that stability achieved is not stability guaranteed.

in government securities yields, alongside the rapid appreciation of the cedi, initially posed material risks to banks’ foreign exchange exposures and Net Open Position limits. For the banking sector, the adjustment period has been demanding. The Domestic Debt Exchange Programme tested balance sheets, capital buffers, and governance frameworks. Regulatory reliefs provided temporary breathing space, but their full withdrawal by the end of 2025 signals a return to normal prudential standards. Banks are now required to operate with stronger capital discipline, sharper risk pricing, and renewed focus on asset quality.

Though 2025 may be regarded as a year of macroeconomic stabilisation, the abrupt and pronounced decline The 2026 GAB Banking Industry Outlook is published at a moment when the sector must move from defence to strategy. Opportunities are emerging in private sector credit, infrastructure financing, digital payments, trade finance, and ESG-aligned investments. At the same time, risks remain elevated. Sovereign exposure, non-performing loans, cyber threats, geopolitical fragmentation, and climate-related shocks continue to shape the operating environment. Over the past two years, decisive policy actions have restored a measure of macroeconomic stability.

Inflation has declined sharply and the exchange rate has stabilised. Fiscal consolidation has strengthened, and confidence has begun to return. These gains are meaningful, but they are also fragile. Ghana’s Against this backdrop, the industry Ghana Association of Banks 2026 Industry Outlook 01

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