Climate Change: As a result of the Lao PDR’s geographical location, its climate is dominated by monsoonal variability, with the southwest monsoon particularly contributing to high rainfall and high temperatures from May to September. The monsoon contributes to a seasonal cycle of rainfall where more than 70 percent occurs during the wet season. According to the USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (USAID Mekong ARCC) project, the Lao PDR will likely experience pronounced changes in rainfall and temperature patterns by 2050 with significant ramifications for ecosystems, and the communities and the livelihoods that support them.
USAID Mekong ARCC also states that large rainfall events (e.g. greater than 100 mm/day) will occur more frequently and daily maximum temperatures will rise by roughly 2°C to 3°C in the Lao PDR, with higher increases to the south. 3.2. I NDIRECT DRIVERS TO BIODIVERSITY LOSS Biodiversity loss is occurring as a consequence of the above-mentioned direct drivers. However, these direct drivers are being fed by indirect driver of biodiversity loss. They are the root causes of changes in ecosystems. Four main indirect drivers that influence biodiversity in the Lao PDR are: Economic activity:
According to the World Bank, the Lao PDR is one of the fastest growing economies in the East Asia and Pacific region with a GNI per capita of $1,600 in 2014. GDP growth averaged 7 percent over the last decade, with increasing use of the country’s natural resources – mostly water, minerals and forests – contributing one third of output growth (World Bank, 2015). As previously mentioned, natural resources – forestry, agriculture land, water, and minerals – comprises more than half of the Lao PDR’s total wealth.
For instance, in 2001, log production contributed 3.2% of national GDP; this share anyway would have been higher if subsistence use and processing of wood and NTFPs were included (MoNRE, 2013). An unsustainable consumption and production, resulting from an increase of living standards, seems to change natural resources use and impacting negatively in the national biodiversity. As a result, the country is working to ensure that the economic activities are sustainably managed. Population growth:
The ADB (2006) reported that in 2005, the Lao PDR population was 5.9 million, a lower population, compared to neighbouring countries such as Thailand (64.1 million), Vietnam (83.6 million), and Cambodia (14.8 million). Based on Lao Statistic Bureau, the Lao PDR ended 2012 with a population of 6.5 million. 21