Chapter 2 The development of OASys offenders’ attitudes were also predictive of reconviction (information that was unavailable to the May study). Clark demonstrated that change in dynamic factors, for example, improvements in education level, were linked to changes in rates of reconviction .
Combining static and dynamic factors In this country, the best known examples of risk assessment tools that include dynamic factors are the LSI-R (Level of Service Inventory Revised, produced by Andrews & Bonta, 1994), and ACE (Assessment, Case Recording/Management and Evaluation System, jointly developed by Colin Roberts of the Oxford University Probation Studies Unit and Warwickshire Probation Service, 1995). Research studies have shown that LSI-R can be used reliably by many types of criminal justice personnel.
The LSI-R has been found to be predictive of recidivism for many types of offenders, including females and young offenders, and to be predictive for prisoners, parolees and probationers. As well as being a straightforward predictor of recidivism, LSI-R has also been shown to predict prison misconduct, assaults, reincarceration within one year, and parole violation. It has also been used to predict successful placement of imprisoned offenders in correctional half-way houses, a diversionary alternative to imprisonment in the Canadian system.
(For a summary of the research see Andrews & Bonta, 1996.) Although widely used in the probation service, ACE has been used for a shorter time and so does not have the quantity of empirical research data that is available for LSI-R, but this is increasing all the time. A study by Raynor, Roberts, Kynch and Merrington (2000) compared the use of LSI-R and ACE in probation services in England and Wales. They showed that risk assessment instruments could be used effectively by probation services in the UK. Both instruments could be completed reliably by probation staff and, where they were in use, had made a serious contribution to the development and evaluation of effective practice.
The development of ACE and LSI-R and their use in the UK demonstrates that it is possible to produce an instrument that effectively assesses likelihood of reconviction and identifies the areas of need. OASys has been designed from research evidence to meet a comprehensive specification and to take into account user preferences and requirements. This has been done in three ways: ! by referring to surveys of the views of users of risk assessment instruments ! by establishing a user group to comment on OASys during design stages ! by extensive piloting of OASys in the community and in prisons during development. OASys Manual V2 © Crown Copyright 2002 Page 8