Introduction Macroeconomic Insights Global Political Landscape Ghana’s Fiscal Position Technology & Cybersecurity Banking Industry Figure 11: Movements in Short Term Market Deposit Rates easing cycle transmitted strongly into market and retail rates. The Ghana Reference Rate rose sharply to 32.83 percent in 2022 and remained above 32 percent in 2023 before declining to 15.9 percent in 2025. The average lending rate followed a similar pattern, peaking at 35.58 percent in 2022 and falling below 20 percent in 2025. These movements had a profound effect on borrower cash flows, loan performance, and credit demand.
The easing of monetary conditions in 2025 supports a gradual recovery in private sector credit in 2026, but the transmission mechanism is asymmetric. Lending rates rise quickly during tightening phases but adjust more slowly during easing phases, which implies that banks must actively manage repricing risk and margin compression. Deposit rates remain sticky, particularly for term deposits, which could further compress net interest margins as competition intensifies. Liquidity conditions improved significantly after the crisis years, with banks holding elevated levels of liquid assets in 2024 before partially redeploying liquidity in 2025.
This liquidity normalisation is consistent with improving confidence, but it also implies Source: Bank of Ghana Online Database Portal that banks must remain vigilant to sudden shifts in market conditions. The combination of easing rates, improved liquidity, and stabilising macro conditions creates space for renewed intermediation in 2026, but only within a disciplined risk management framework. Ghana Association of Banks Ghana Association of Banks 2026 Industry Outlook 2026 Industry Outlook 11