Introduction Macroeconomic Insights Global Political Landscape Ghana’s Fiscal Position Technology & Cybersecurity Banking Industry Ghana’s Fiscal Outlook from 2026 and Beyond: Implications for Bank Financing, Sovereign Exposure, and Credit Risk Management F rom 2026, government finances show a clear expansion in nominal terms, driven by both higher revenues and expenditures. Total government revenue is projected to rise from about GHS 230 billion in 2025 to GHS 268.1 billion in 2026, and further to over GHS 310 billion by 2027, reaching nearly GHS 392 billion by 2029. This steady improvement in revenue performance, underpinned largely by rising tax revenues:
from a tax revenue projection of GHS 190 billion in 2025 to GHS 224 billion in 2026 and close to GHS 335 billion by 2029, signals stronger revenue mobilisation and improved tax administration agenda. For banks, this trajectory is important because stronger and more predictable government revenues reduce fiscal uncertainty and enhance the sovereign’s capacity to meet its obligations, lowering systemic risk in the financial system.
It is essential to provide clear budgetary allocations for these projected expenditures and to ensure policy continuity, so that future changes in government do not result in elevated non-performing loans on banks’ balance sheets due to contract truncation or repudiation. This would help preserve banks’ asset quality to build more base for further credit extension that would drive economic transformation and development for employment and growth. Per the 2026 budget statement, Figure 17: Governments’ Revenue and Expenditure Outlook for 2026 Source:
Ghana’s 2026 Budget Statement On the expenditure side, total government spending is projected to increase from about GHS 269.5 billion in 2025 to GHS 302.5 billion in 2026, rising further to nearly GHS 439 billion by 2029. A notable feature of the expenditure profile is the strong emphasis on capital expenditure (CAPEX). CAPEX is expected to rise sharply from about GHS 32.7 billion in 2025 to GHS 57.5 billion in 2026, and then continue increasing to over GHS 83 billion by 2029. This reflects a deliberate policy shift toward growth-enhancing spending, particularly in infrastructure and productive sectors.
From a banking perspective, higher CAPEX is positive in the medium to long term, as it supports economic activity, improves firm-level cash flows, and strengthens borrowers’ repayment capacity, thereby improving the quality of banks’ loan books over time. Ghana Association of Banks 2026 Industry Outlook 16